Modelling lock-down strictness for COVID-19 pandemic in ASEAN countries by using hybrid ARIMA-SVR and hybrid SEIR-ANN

ASEAN, include Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, are the countries with ongoing transmission of SARS-COV-2, virus that causes COVID-19. The confirmed cases in Indonesia Philippines highest ranks among other ASEAN such as Singapore. To reduce spread pandemic COVID-19, each country has implemented lock-down policy differently, depending on its economic situation. Therefore, study impact across world, particularly countries, is still relevant to do. In this study, we developed model by using hybrid ARIMA-SVR SEIR-ANN. first based time series ARIMA, revision error SVR. second classical infectious diseases, SEIR, which revise prediction part ANN. intended individual model. data collected per was started from January 20, 2020 August 5, 2020. periods divided into three, namely no lock-down, new normal periods. strictness levels were predicted for 60 days ahead. results showed had smaller RMSE compared similarly, SEIR-ANN S, E, I, R more accurately SEIR It been also found lock down most effectively whereas inefficient enforce restriction. indicated number increased significantly during restriction both countries.